Disequilibrium" is an essay that connects the dots between various academic disciplines and does a great job at simplifying the increasing complexity of today's world. It contends that in the foreseeable future, our world will be lurching from one global crisis to the next as it becomes much more susceptible to shocks and surprises than just a few years ago. Consequently, we will all have the impression of being on the verge of constant instability, with random occurrences happening all the time.
The book provides a conceptual framework that explains why this is so (looking in particular at how ever-increasing interdependency, complexity, velocity and transparency interact with each other, creating feedback loops in the process). It also analyses what this all means for decision-makers and argues that the complexity of the world is progressively overwhelming their capabilities (particularly in the case of politicians and bankers) to make sensible, well-informed decisions. The last chapter (largely based on interviews and conversations with key decision-makers and leading investors) provides some important insights and “tips” on how not only to cope with, but also benefit from these dramatic changes.
